주말에는 개인적인 일처리로 업데이트를 못하는 경우가 있는데, 이번 주말에는 한 번도 못올렸네요... 월요일까지 평균으로 계산하겠습니다.
코로나바이러스코로나19코비드19전 세계 현황
확진자 고점 횡보 63일차.
(확진자: 145,209 => 130,817 / 사망자: 4,952 =>3,880)
확진자 수는 평균으로 따지면 굉장히 높은 편인 것 같습니다... 그래도 사망자 수는 내려온 편이네요.
중국에서 2차 확산기가 시작됐다는 뉴스들이 보이던데... 사실상 2차는지난 것 같고 한 참 뒤에 이런 뉴스가 뜰 정도로라면 꽤나 많이 발생하고 있기는 한가봅니다. 중국쪽에서 다시 확산이 시작됐다고하니... 고점에서 내려올라면 멀었나 싶고... 더 높은 고점으로 갱신될 것 같기도 합니다...
격리해제: 91,700 => 88,759
격리해제 숫자도 그래도 어느정도는 내려왔습니다.
동일한 높이의 고점이 한 번 더 생겼습니다. 조만간 내려올 것 같은 신호일까요?
인도가 유럽 국가들을 재치고 4번째까지 올라갔습니다. 다른 남미국가들도 무서운 속도로 확진자가 발생하고있는데 이번달이 지나면 유럽국가들은 5번째 밖으로 밀릴 것 같습니다.
그리고 그 밑을 보면 다른 중동국가나 유럽국가 중에서도 갑자기 속도있게 확진자가 생기는 나라들이 있다는 것도 문제입니다. 특히 브라질같이 이미 경제상태가 좋지않았던 아르헨티나가 확진자 수가 늘고있는 것 같습니다.
중순쯤에는 만나서 내려오지 않을까 생각이들었는데 월 말까지는 봐야할 것 같기도 합니다. 생각보다 내려가기가 쉽지 않네요...
코로나바이러스 코비드19 미국 현황
(미국 - 총 145일째)
1/23 시작
1/23~4/10 확산기 (79일)
4/10 정점
4/11~5/12 고점으로부터 하락 (32일)
5/13~ 횡보 진행중 (34일)
미국은 여전히 횡보 진행중입니다. 시위도 하는데 폭발적으로 늘지 않는 것에 감사해야 할까요...?
Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Remarks June 10, 2020
CHAIR POWELL.
Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Our country continues to face a difficult and challenging time, as the pandemic is causing tremendous hardship here in the United States and around the world. People have lost loved ones. Many millions have lost their jobs. There is great uncertainty about the future. (많은 사람들이 실직했다. 미래는 매우 불확실하다) \
At the Federal Reserve, we are strongly committed to using our tools to do whatever we can, and for as long as it takes, to provide some relief and stability, to ensure that the recovery will be as strong as possible, and to limit lasting damage to the economy.(우리는 경제적 데미지를 경감 인정성을 유지하기위해 모든 수단을 사용할 것이다)
The most important response to this crisis has come from our health care workers. And on behalf of the Federal Reserve, let me express our sincere gratitude to those dedicated individuals who put themselves at risk, day after day, in service to others and to our nation. Let me also thank the many other essential workers across the country who have helped meet our basic needs for goods and services in these difficult times. The virus and the forceful measures taken to control its spread have induced a sharp decline in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Indicators of spending and production plummeted in April, and the decline in real GDP in the current quarter is likely to be the most severe on record.(4월에 소비 생산이 폭락했고 이번 분기 실제 GDP의 하락은 기록적으로 낮을 것으로 예상한다.)
Even after the unexpectedly positive May employment report, nearly 20 million jobs have been lost on net since February, and the unemployment rate has risen about 10 percentage points, to 13.3 percent. As was highlighted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this figure likely understates the extent of unemployment; accounting for the unusually large number of workers who reported themselves as employed but absent from their jobs would raise the unemployment rate by about 3 percentage points.(2월 이후 2000만명 이상의 실직자가 발생했고 실업률도 13.3%까지 약 10%가량 상승했다)
The downturn has not fallen equally on all Americans, and those least able to shoulder the burden have been the most affected. In particular, the rise in joblessness has been especially severe for lower-wage workers, for women, and for African Americans and Hispanics.(하락은 모든 미국인들이 동일하게 적용 되지 않았고 이런 피해는 가장 피해가 적어야할 저소득층들이 가장 많이 봤다.)
In recent weeks, some indicators suggest a stabilization or even a modest rebound in some segments of the economy, such as retail merchandise and motor vehicle sales. Employment rose in many sectors of the economy in May, and the unemployment edged down as some workers returned to their jobs from temporary layoffs. With the easing of social distancing restrictions across the country, people are increasingly moving about, and many businesses are resuming operations to varying degrees.
최근 몇 주간 경재활동이 재개되고 일부 산업이 회복했고 실업률도 조금 경감됐다.
At the same time, many households have been receiving stimulus payments and unemployment benefits, which are supporting incomes and spending. Activity in many parts of the economy has yet to pick up, however, and overall output is far below earlier levels. Moreover, despite the improvements seen in the May jobs report, unemployment remains historically high. Weak demand, especially in sectors most affected by the pandemic, is holding down consumer prices. As a result, inflation has fallen well below our symmetric 2 percent objective. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations have been fairly steady. The extent of the downturn and the pace of recovery remain extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus. We all want to get back to normal, but a full recovery is unlikely to occur until people are confident that it is safe to reengage in a broad range of activities.
The severity of the downturn will also depend on the policy actions taken at all levels of government to provide relief and to support the recovery when the public health crisis passes. The Fed’s response is guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people, along with our responsibilities to promote the stability of the financial system. We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy in this challenging time.
In March, we quickly lowered our policy interest rate to near zero, where we expect to keep it until we are confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals.(우리는 3월에 금리를 0%낮췄고, 경제가 제대로 회복됐다 판단될 때까지 유지할 것)
We have also been taking broad and forceful actions to support the flow of credit in the economy. Without access to credit, families could be forced to cut back on necessities or even lose their homes. Businesses could be forced to downsize or close, resulting in further losses of jobs and incomes and worsening the downturn. Preserving the flow of credit is thus essential for mitigating the damage to the economy and setting the stage for the recovery. Since March, we have been purchasing sizable quantities of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities in order to support the smooth functioning of these markets, which are vital to the flow of credit in the economy. Our ongoing purchases have helped to restore orderly market conditions, and have fostered more accommodative financial conditions. As market functioning has improved since the strains experienced in March, we have gradually reduced the pace of these purchases. To sustain smooth market functioning and thereby foster the effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions, we will increase our holdings of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities over coming months at least at the current pace. 3월부터 지금까지 연준 자산을 늘려왔고 현재의 속도를 유지할 것이다 (주 200억달러, 월간 800억 예상)
We will closely monitor developments and are prepared to adjust our plans as appropriate to support our goals. The Federal Reserve is also undertaking programs to provide stability to the financial system and to more directly support the flow of credit in the economy—for households, for businesses of all sizes, and for state and local governments. These programs benefit the economy by providing financing where it is not otherwise available. In addition, by serving as a backstop to key credit markets, the programs can increase the willingness of private lenders to extend credit. Many of these programs rely on emergency lending powers that are available only in very unusual circumstances, such as those we find ourselves in today. We are deploying these lending powers to an unprecedented extent, enabled in large part by financial backing and support from Congress and from the Treasury. We will continue to use these powers forcefully, proactively, and aggressively until we are confident that we are solidly on the road to recovery.우리는 경제가 회복될 때까지 이 같이 강력한 정책들을 유지할 것
When the time comes, after the crisis has passed, we will put these emergency tools back in the toolbox.그리고 회복이 될 때는 이러한 정책들을 중단할 것
I would stress that these are lending powers, not spending powers. The Fed cannot grant money to particular beneficiaries. We can only create programs or facilities with broad-based eligibility to make loans to solvent entities with the expectation that the loans will be repaid. Many borrowers will benefit from these programs, as will the overall economy. But for many others, getting a loan that may be difficult to repay may not be the answer. In these cases, direct fiscal support may be needed. Elected officials have the power to tax and spend and to make decisions about where we, as a society, should direct our collective resources. The CARES Act and other legislation provide direct help to people, and businesses, and communities. This direct support can make a critical difference, not just in helping families and businesses in a time of need, but also in limiting long-lasting damage to our economy.
At this meeting, my colleagues and I continued our discussion of approaches for conducting monetary policy when the federal funds rate is at its lower bound. The measures we discussed included explicit forms of forward guidance and asset purchases; we used these tools in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, and they have become a standard part of our toolkit. We also reviewed the historical and foreign experience with targeting interest rates along the yield curve. Whether such an approach would usefully complement our main tools remains an open question. (마이너스 금리나 YCC에 대해선 아직 논의중)
We will continue our discussions in upcoming meetings and will evaluate our monetary policy stance and communications as more information about the trajectory of the economy becomes available. We also resumed our regular quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, or the SEP. The SEP is an input into our deliberations, not an outcome, and it does not represent a Committee view. Rather, FOMC participants write down their individual views of the most likely path for the economy, conditional on each participant’s view of appropriate monetary policy. We tabulate those submissions and we publish them as the SEP. Given the unusually high level of uncertainty about the outlook, many participants noted that they see a number of reasonably likely paths for the economy, and that it is not possible to identify with confidence a single path as the “most likely” one. Nonetheless, we believe that regular publication of the SEP provides a useful perspective on the way FOMC participants are assessing the path ahead. What the June SEP shows is a general expectation of an economic recovery beginning in the second half of this year and lasting over the next couple of years, supported by interest rates that remain at their current level near zero. Of course, my colleagues and I will continue to base our policy decisions on the full range of plausible outcomes, and not on a particular forecast. This riskmanagement approach is the best way we can promote our maximum employment and price stability goals in these unusually uncertain circumstances. Finally, I want to acknowledge the tragic events that have again put a spotlight on the pain of racial injustice in this country. The Federal Reserve serves the entire nation. We operate in, and are part of, many of the communities across the country where Americans are grappling with and expressing themselves on issues of racial equality. I speak for my colleagues throughout the Federal Reserve System when I say there is no place at the Federal Reserve for racism and there should be no place for it in our society.Everyone deserves the opportunity to participate fully in our society and in our economy. These principles guide us in all we do, from monetary policy, to our focus on diversity and inclusion in our workplace, and to our work to ensure fair access to credit across the country. We will take this opportunity to renew our steadfast commitment to these principles. We understand that the work of the Fed touches communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy and to help assure that the recovery from this difficult period will be as robust as possible. Thank you, I look forward to our questions.
차이는 2022년까지 제로금리 유지 => 구체적인 포워드가이던스(Foward Guidance) 제시
FOMC 성명 이전에 금리가 상승할 것이라는 의견이 15%정도 생겼었다.
제시 이유: 고용지표 서프라이즈 기록 => 금리가 오를 거이라는 시장 불안감 생성
발표이후 금리 인상 예상 소멸
현재 진행하는 수준의 양적완화를 유지
지금은 국채는 매주200억 달러 수준으로 매입 => 월 800억 달러 수준
Yield Curve Control은 고민중
마이너스 금리는 언급 X
기대치가 어디까지 였냐는 시장이 어떻게 반응하냐로 분석 가능 (지켜봐야함)
다만 환호할 수준은 아님. (Yield Curve Control에 대한 강한 가이던스가 나와주길 기대)
효과: 금리 인하 불안감 해소
=> 지난 발표와 뚜렷한 차이점을 발견하기는 어려운 케이스
=> 연준은 아직까진 노골적으로 '호구'짓은 안 하고 있다. 기대한 것을 원할 때마다 계속 던져주진 않겠다는 것
시장이 원하는 것: YCC / 마이너스 금리 / 더 큰 규모의 양적 완화
양적완화=> 돈은 위에서 아래로 흐름 (대기업 to 중소기업)
따라서 양적완화 규모 축소 => 돈은 대기업 수준에 까지밖에 흐르지 못함
ex) 나스닥은 만스닥 달성, 하지만 중소형주는 하락 2%정도 (러셀 2000)
중소형주, 하이일드 채권 시장 주시 필요. 실물 경기는 아직 불안. CLO 시장 주시 필요.
인용기사
“일본은행(BOJ)과 일본 금융청이은행들에 미국 대출채권담보부증권(CLO) 관련 투자를 경고하고 나섰다고 월스트리트저널이 3일(현지시간) 보도했다.금융청은 보고서에서 은행들의 자본완충력이CLO투자로 축소될 수있으며"만기 전에 해당 투자를 매각할 의도가 없더라도 투자상품의 신용등급이 강등되면 상각위험이 있어 그에 따라 시장에 상당한 가격 변동성을 야기할 수 있다"고 경고했다.저널은 그동안 금융청이CLO이슈에 상대적으로 관심을 덜 기울였으나이번 주BOJ과 함께 처음으로CLO에 대한 종합적인 평가보고서를 내놨다고 설명했다.
CLO는 신용이 낮은 기업들이 담보를 제공하고 받는 대출인 레버리지 대출을 기초자산으로 하는 고위험 고금리 상품이다.은행이 저등급 기업에 대한 융자를 대출채권 형태로 증권사 등 금융기관에 매각하면,이를 매수한 측이 여러 대출채권을 묶어CLO로 만들어 투자자에게매각한다.만약 기초자산인 대출의 가격이 하락하거나 디폴트에 빠지면 여기에 투자한 연기금,보험사,뮤추얼펀드,헤지펀드등이 상당한 타격을 입을 수 있다.
최근 들어 신종 코로나바이러스 감염증(코로나19)으로 인해 기업들의 어려움이 커질 경우 관련 상품의 위험도커질 수 있다는 우려가 나오고 있다.
일본계 금융기관의 CLO 투자액은 전 세계 CLO 투자액 7천500억달러의 20%에육박한다. 특히 상당 부분이 일본에서 발행되지 않은 증권들에 투자됐다.”(연합인포맥스, 20. 6. 4)
